That big spike in the middle there represents the following hand:

A bad beat in a crucial spot. If I win that pot, I’m in very good shape to take down the tournament, obviously.

However, not everything can be blamed on brutal variance. I have been making some bad decicions with 18 or less people left, which have cost me at least 2 final tables. It seems like I want to make that final table SO bad that I can’t handle the stress and spew away all my chips at a certain point, because of fear of getting blinded out (although I have a healthy stack). Again, something to work on. I decided to play at least 51 more of these $2.50 buy-ins before stepping up.

And finally for the graph-lovers:

Here’s the graph:

I’m running pretty good and not playing all that bad. Not that many spectacular hands have been played, although I keep breaking my head over this one:

This hand was very crucial, I became chipleader after this hand and ended up winning the SNG. Obviously I think he’s stealing and A8 is too good of a hand to muck there. BUT, if I push do I only get called by better? The player was very active (33/33) and his steal attempts were at 100% (over 20 hands, mind you) so was this the right play? I still don’t know…

Maybe I’m not playing cautious enough and this will result in a major downswing later on. Another example of me playing a bit too reckless is the following hand:

After his push I’m only a slight favourite at best. I have a healthy stack, so maybe I should pass on this spot?

Many interesting questions I’m taking into the second week of the grind (although some might say that playing 20 SNG’s a week might not be considered an actual grind, lol.)

But a poker player has to play his game, so today I’ve deposited $100 on Pokerstars. I’m gonna start a new grinding project with the $2,5 NLH 180 SNG’s as my target. I’m planning on playing 20 of these a week, or 4 a day for 5 days. My estimated ROI is 50% (they are quite soft after all), so that would make a $25 profit/week. After 2 weeks my bankroll should be $150 and I’ll move up to the $3,5 NLH 180 Rebuy SNG’s.

I’ll update this blog weekly with the fancy PT graphs and some interesting hand histories. Wish me luck!

For those who love graphs:

Obviously, I am runnng pretty good. But most importantly, I’m playing with a lot of confidence. I’m not afraid to make plays when I think they are the right one. An example:

Hands like these not only can be pretty profitable, they also keep your spirit up. Just imagine what happens when he shoves on my check-raise. I loose a third of my stack and start blaiming myself for making a stupid, unnecessary move (although technically it might be the right play in this spot). I start steaming a bit and start playing too loose ot too scared. A good pokerplayer shouldn’t be affected by this, I know, but maybe I’m not mentally strong enough, just yet. When I’m playing good and luck isn’t too much against me, I’m pretty hard to beat (this might come of as arrogant, but hey, like I said, my confidence-level is way up ), but when I’m confronted with adversity I’m an easy target. Something to work on and think about before this amazing run ends, and the bad-beats start coming!

Here’s the biggest and most crucial hand I’ve played:

I make a bit of a loose steal UTG, playing the bully big stack. The other big stack flats me. I put him on a small pocket, a good king (in which case I’m in trouble) or a weak ace, maybe a hand like QJs. When the flop comes down AQJ, not only do I flop the nuts, this flop must surely have hit his hand too. Turns out I was right, but certainly not in the way that I had expected. When he calls the flop I think he either has a weak ace or a flushdraw. When he shoves on the turn, I’m very suprised he turns over AK. I still don’t understand why he didn’t reraise me pre-flop. Was he trying to trap me, or was he just scared of playing a big pot against me? Eitherway, I got very lucky and this hand secured me the win of that tournament, cashing $160 for a $1.1 buy-in.

A few days later I finished 3th in a $4.4 Rush tournament, cashing $100.

I’m gonna keep grinding these and get back to you all in a little while. Wish me luck!

So, I came up with this challenge to beat these games consistently over a sample size of 1k SNG’s. I reserved 50$ of my bankroll for this experiment and started playing the 5.40$ buy-in SNG’s. I expected to run good and so I did. Once I worked my roll up to 200$ I started adding some 10.80$ SNG’s in the mix.

I’ve played 285 games so far and although things are going slow the last 140 games, I’m confident I will crush these games in the long run. I’ve added the graph below for bragging rights.

I really felt this format was going to play out in my favour, because it reduces variance significantly. Turns out I was right. Especially the PLO tournaments gave me a big edge over the rest of the field, since most of the other 250 competitors had no clue what they were doing (with all do respect).

Here’s the ultimate proof, just in case you think I’m full of it: the final standings .

Happy New Year me!

Here’s how the hand played out:

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PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, 8.8 Tournament, 20/40 Blinds (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

black2s87 (CO) (t5665)
Button (t3240)
SB (t1980)
BB (t3000)
UTG (t13250)
MP (t5010)

black2s87′s M: 94.42

Preflop: black2s87 is CO with Q♣, A♥, Q♥, 8♣
UTG bets t80, MP raises to t160, black2s87 calls t160, 2 folds, BB calls t120, UTG calls t80

Flop: (t660) K♥, Q♠, 10♥ (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, black2s87 bets t360, 1 fold, UTG calls t360, 1 fold

Turn: (t1380) 3♠ (2 players)
UTG checks, black2s87 bets t920, UTG raises to t4140, black2s87 calls t3220

River: (t9660) J♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, black2s87 bets t1005 (All-In), UTG calls t1005

Total pot: t11670

——————————-

When he raises the turn I know I’m behind and that he has the nut straight. There’s a very slim chance he has KKxx for top set, but I doubt that. I’m not folding though: if he has the straight, I have 19 outs to win:

So I’m getting almost 1/2 odds on a call and have to call 3220 to win 6420 (plus the 2000 chips that go in when I hit my hand). Not a bad call right? And what a lovely river!

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha, 4.4 Tournament, 10000/20000 Blinds (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

blackdeuces (BB) (t1223003)
SB (t525997)

blackdeuces’s M: 40.77

Preflop: blackdeuces is BB with 9, 7, 10, J
SB bets t40000, blackdeuces calls t20000

Flop: (t80000) 3, 10, 8 (2 players)
blackdeuces checks, SB bets t80000, blackdeuces raises to t320000, SB calls t240000

Turn: (t720000) 5 (2 players)
blackdeuces bets t720000, SB calls t165997 (All-In)

River: (t1051994) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t1051994

Results:
SB had 7, 10, A, 6 (straight, ten high).
blackdeuces had 9, 7, 10, J (straight, Jack high).
Outcome: blackdeuces won t1051994

Although 440$ might not be a lot, it feels good to finally take a PLO tournament down. Huray me!

In this episode he challenges Phil Hellmuth, a self-proclaimed frisbee expert (lol), to hit him with a frisbee in 10 throws. What makes this movie a classic are the t-shirts Norman is wearing. I can dodge frisbees baby.

Norman Chad is a hero. “Good for you.”